Going
… and going …
Dominic is the name given to the last Google update.
It started in early May, 2003 and is still going … and
going … and going.
What was a fairly routine monthly cycle
for Google has turned into a nightmare for many webmasters.
It used to be that Google would synchronize their 9
datacenters once every month. This process was
fondly referred to as the Google Dance as it was a 4-6
day time period
that new rankings would seem to "dance" across
the 9 datacenters as Google synchronized their datasets.
But the Google Dance may be a thing of
the past. Starting in early May, Google started a process
of introducing new search engine software on each of
its 9 datacenters. This process alone took about 10
days. On
about the 17th of the month, all datacenters had the
new software. And that is when the sky started to fall.
Google's rankings changed radically - for the worse.
Apparently, Google elected to display an index that
was 4 months old and without its normal ANTI-SPAM filters.
Websites that were relatively new (within the last 6
months) lost significant rankings or were dropped all
together. Older websites (between 6 and 12 months) also
seemed to suffer. However, more mature websites (those
older than 12 months) held up fairly well.
What is Google saying?
A Google representative that frequents the industry
forums known
only as "GoogleGuy" has intimated that this
is all part of a complex implementation plan to dramatically
improve the quality of its search
results. Several recent articles have been published
about Google's
plans to speed their PageRank calculations by a factor
of 5X (http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/21570.html).
Other articles
cover the "pollution" of Google rankings caused
by forums and their
use of "Trackbacks" (http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/6/30621.html).
The Google representative has mentioned that new ANTI-SPAM
filters are "waiting in the wings".
GoogleGuy has emphasized that Google's
implementation plan will be
rolled out in "weeks, not months" and that
each part may take several days/weeks to implement.
He has also suggested that current PageRank values shown
on the GoogleBar and the count of linkbacks (links that
reside on other website pages) are not displaying accurately.
To date, rankings of newly optimized websites
have zigzagged several times. Many webmasters have seen
their rankings return to their pre Dominic update positions
only to see them plummet a few days later. Some webmasters
report their website has been dropped from Google's
index entirely. And there is lots of chatter about conspiracy
theories (Google against the webmaster).
It has been 3 weeks since Google's last
datacenter synchronization. Most webmasters who monitor
such things agree that Google's SERPs (Search Engine
RePorts) are very SPAMMY. There are lots of reports
of websites known to be using SPAM techniques that have
high Google rankings.
So What is Google Doing?
Google is not very forth coming with information but
that has not kept the webmaster and SEO community from
speculating. We can tell you that many of the ANTI-SPAM
filters that Google used prior to the Dominic
update are believed to be POST-PROCESSING filters. That
means Google would produce rankings and then weed out
the websites that used SPAM techniques in a separate
step. We now believe that many of these POST-PROCESSING
filters are to be introduced as PRE-PROCESS steps. This
change would increase Google's SERP quality and reduce
resource requirements.
We also believe that new filters will
be implemented to distinguish
between a real linkback and a "Trackback"
link from a forum. And Google may be taking steps to
more tightly integrate IP class and mirror site linkbacks
filtering (see May's newsletter Issue 03.05 - May 2003)
discussing Google's new patent.
But one of the biggest questions is why
did Google choose to use February's SERP? There are
only 3 plausible reasons we can think of:
Since Google compiles their main index
based on crawled data, they may have experienced corruption
of their data and had to go back approximately 4 months
to a clean baseline.
Again, since Google compiles their data, and POST-PROCESSING
filter information may have been part of this compilation,
Google may have needed to go back several months (prior
to POST-PROCESS filtering) to introduce the new PRE-PROCESS
filtering.
Google may be introducing a new measure of TIME. It
is possible that Google will begin to date stamp backlinks.
The hypothesis is that older, more mature links will
have more value (e.g. links that are 4 months old could
have more value than newer links).
If Google did have corruption in their database, they
could have just re-crawled and corrected the condition.
So it seems more probable that possibilities 2) and/or
3) are likely.
It is possible that Google will begin
to date stamp backlinks. The
hypothesis is that older, more mature links will have
more value (e.g.
links that are 4 months old could have more value than
newer links).
Finally, this is good evidence to suggest
that Google is calculating
PageRank (one of Google's webpage measurements) "on-the-fly".
This would mean no more Google Dance cycles, as we once
knew them.
When Will We Get There?
This is the big question. Just this weekend, some webmasters
reported a new Google SERP - one that looked good and
eliminated the SPAMers.
But that SERP only lasted a few hours and then Google
returned to the SPAMMY SERP. Is Google having problems?
Are they testing? Perhaps!
Last night (Monday evening) there was
new activity in Google's datacenters. Rankings seem
to be moving toward pre-Dominic levels.
Google isn't saying. But if GoogleGuy
is steering us in the right directions, Google may need
as much as another 4 weeks to fully implement this update
(assuming they are on plan). That will place the clock
at 7 weeks from the time all the datacenters synchronized
under the Dominic update. And 7 weeks would be on the
outside of GoogleGuy's guidance
("weeks, not months").
But I believe we are closer to seeing
Google implement the next step in their plan:
add more website pages - Google's spider
is actively crawling website
pages add more recent backlinks - still waiting and
ANTI-SPAM filters -
still waiting I'll admit that it is just a hunch, but
we are coming up to what should be the next update period.
If TIME is going to be a new measure
for backlinks and/or new PRE-PROCESS filters will improve
Google's SERP quality, we could expect to see some real
changes in week 4.
One thing is certain. By the time you
read this article, there will be new observations that
will help the webmaster/SEO community determine what
Google is doing.
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